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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.23% this morning, easing around 6bps from last week’s level, still up from 2026’s opening at 4.17%.   Our focus is on the US dollar versus gold relationship today as the dollar has weakened versus a basket of other currencies to levels last seen almost 3 years ago. Not at historic lows by any means. Gold, on the other hand, has seen a massive run-up in value, now at its highest level in history (or at least since 1920). Prices have more than doubled just since the end of 2023, this morning at $5,079/oz. Typically, the dollar and gold have a very strong inverse relationship. But the current distortion is a real signal investors need to focus on. Possible factors include a rotation out of dollar denominated assets, expectations around forward inflation, volatility, and gold as a safe haven status versus other options. Major themes remain a weakening jobs market, higher inflation, volatility, and other risk factors despite record valuations on the equities side.
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