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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.29% this morning, up 12bps from 2026’s opening at 4.17%. Less than 3 weeks into 2026, markets have had a lot to digest. Venezuela, Greenland, Tariffs / No Tariffs, and the list goes on. Actual economic news takes a back seat to the daily events. While hard to discount the volatility, let’s look at where we are. Comparing today to 1 year ago, equities (S&P 500) are up 16.5%, Core PCE is about the same (2.9%) and UST10 yields are down by 29bp. Sounds good right? But look deeper. The 2/10 curve is 70bps vs 33bps, the 2/30 is 133bps vs 54bps, gold is up over 80%. The curve steepening and run-up in gold is more driven by uncertainty and implied inflation rather than expectations of robust economic growth in our opinion. This view is reinforced by an unemployment rate at 4.33% vs 4.10% and by BLS’s report that 2025 job creation fell to 584,000 versus 2,000,000 in 2024. Major themes remain a weakening jobs market, higher inflation, and other risk factors despite record valuations on the equities side.
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