Weekly rates

Recent Updates:

Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.44% this morning, with yields backing off by 5bps from last week’s level on slightly lower oil prices.   News of a Middle East deal that appeared very close over the weekend now appear far off again with new airstrikes and continued back and forth on prospects for a settlement. The Fed’s favorite PCE index was released late last week showing a 3.8% Year-over-year increase, with Core PCE at 3.3%, both well above the informal 2.0% target. Oil prices, tariffs, and related costs seem to now be firmly in place.CME Fedwatch says market believes now ~ 54% chance of rate increase by December 2026.
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