Weekly rates

Recent Updates:

Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.43% today, still trading in that just under 4.50% area for the past five weeks or so. Market appears to be in holding mode pending more clarity of trade policy, tariffs, the status of the upcoming budget package, and now the potential for a larger Middle East war. Continued lack of clarity will tend to keep the rates market on hold, but also continue to pressure the longer end of the curve in the form of risk premium. For example, the yield on UST30 has increased by 16bps this year, while the UST10 yield has decreased by 15bps. The 30bps steeping of the curve is not driven by signs of significant economic growth, rather more extra premium over fundamental growth and inflation expectations. Retail sales figures were released today, showing a second straight month of declines, falling 0.9% in May. Analysts suggest that the declines are related to consumer anxiety related to tariffs and other macro issues, with discretionary spending at restaurants and bars falling the most since 2023. This week’s economic news to include both an Initial Jobless Claims report and a FOMC rate decision (no change expected), both due on Wednesday.
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