Weekly rates

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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.67% this morning, adding another 22bps since last week, and 26bps in the past 2 weeks on accelerating inflation. For months, market has been wary of several factors viewed as inflationary, namely oil prices driven by the middle east conflict, unstable trade policy, and tariffs. Global bond markets sold off significantly last week as investors are finally coming to terms with the aggregate effects of oil prices, tariffs, and perceived lack of will to constrain according to the head of research at a major investment bank. BLS released April 2026 CPI and Core CPI last week reporting that overall inflation is now 3.8% year-over-year, while core inflation was 2.8%, both well above the Fed’s target rates. BLS also noted a fall in inflation adjusted wages, the first in three years.CME Fedwatch says market believes now a 60% chance of rate increase by December 2026, up from 36% last week.
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