Weekly rates

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Capital Markets Comment: UST10 at 4.45% today, 2bps lower than last week, but still trading around that 4.50% area for several weeks now. Market appears to be in holding mode pending more clarity of trade policy, tariffs, and the status of the upcoming budget package. Continued lack of clarity will tend to keep the rates market on hold, but also continue to pressure the longer end of the curve in the form of risk premium. For example, the yield on UST30 has increased by 16bps this year, while the UST10 yield has decreased by 15bps. The 30bps steeping of the curve is not driven by signs of significant economic growth, rather more extra premium over fundamental growth and inflation expectations. The OECD warned today that US tariff policy has now shifted the entire global economy into a slow-down. They pared growth expectations now for a second time from 3.3% to 2.9%, and US expectations from 2.8% to 1.6%. The warning also highlights reduced investment, and increases in expected inflation, both driven mainly by tariffs and combative trade policy. CME FedWatch now indicates somewhat reduced chance of major rate cuts by the end of 2025. As the market begins to view the on-again / off-again tariffs as more off-again, consumer confidence and increases (See Conference Board’s release today indicating largest monthly gain in four years). Our view, stay tuned as the budget and deficit will soon take center stage.
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